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Thursday, January 13, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 January [Update 6:33PM]

[Update 6:33PM: Another example of a proposed extended fifth wave (although only of Intermediate degree).  Still rooting for gold to fulfill this count. The danger in GOLD I think , is not that it will have a "bubble" as the whole online community expects but that it will indeed fulfill my wave 5 of (5) of [5] and then the pullbacks would induce bullishness in sentiment yet prices correct anyways.  In other words, a drip-drip-drip death march back to $475 (blue box area!) which is my bear market target long-long term. I think a major bounce would occur first at $681 though.]
[Update 6:11PM: Still sticking with this long bond count.]
[Update 6:04 PM: My dollar chart is beginning to look pretty darn good in predicting a wave [ii] retrace. That retrace may support a wave 5 in gold and of course a higher SPX target. But it may also happen reactively swiftly. A dramatic ending to P[2]]
Primary count is that the market (specifically the SPX and Wilshire5000) lack the final Minuette (v) of [v] of 5 of (C) of P[2].

Using the SPX as a guide, we have within wave [v] where waves (i) and (iii) are nearly equal with (iii) being approximately 1.14 times the price length of wave (i). Therefore under EW guidelines when waves one and three are nearly equal within a wave structure, its wave five has the potential to extend.

What would the target for an extension look like in this case? Well I developed my own method for this problem. I like to subtract the expansion of 1.14 (amount wave three expanded) from Fibonacci 1.618 and using the remaining number, add it to 1, to figure the expansion of wave (v) over its wave (i).  So doing the math, 1.618 - 1.14 = .47 + 1 = 1.47. Therefore we can theorize wave (v) might expand 1.47 times the amount of wave (i) since wave (iii) was a paltry 1.14 expansion over wave (i).  The result would be 22 points or so for wave (v) since wave (i) was 15 points in length.  Therefore if today's afternoon low of 1280 was the price low of wave (iv), we then add 22 points to 1280 = 1302 target.  And thus wave (v) within Minute [v] would be the extended wave out of waves (i) (iii) and (v).

All that above you will not find in a book and it is not a consistent method to calculate things in the manner I did. However, its my method and I am willing to record it to see if it pans out.  Its highly speculative.

The bottom line is support has held today so we must speculate that it intends to fulfill a Minuette (v) and the potential is that it will be the extended wave within Minute [v] and therefore skewer the last remaining bears to the bitter end (me). We have alternates counts of course.
The Wilshire would be practically in the same count as the SPX. An extended final push could put it near its ideal target of 13,777.  (That number keeps popping up in my head)
Wilshire squiggles which I like to use because it traces nice waves. You see how waves (i) and (iii) are nearly  equal? As a waver, I must be mentally prepared that wave (v) will therefore extend a bit to make up for the lack of healthy expansion of wave (iii) which is typically the extended wave. It doesn't mean that it will, however we must account for the possibility.
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