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Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 January [Update 6:37PM]

[Update 6:37PM: Diverging breadth thrust patterns can clue us in on price turns. We are at one such divergence now. By the way, the purple horizontal line is the year 2000 peak which occurred on January 14th, 2000.]
[Update 5:57PM: Detailed look at the 30 year bond yield. Also note the record spreads:
Langoliers. Long bond yields pulling the short up is one possible outcome as I have been postulating for many months. We may be reaching a point where that happens and short term rates jump and cause a bit of panic. So my theory will be put to the test.  Bernanke holding down short term rates?  The market is bigger than the FED.]
The bigger picture:
[Update 5:34PM: For all intents and purposes, the Price-Volume-Trend (PVT) indicator for the DJIA is back at the trendline. It has now diverged pretty much exactly for the past 1 year.]
Some powerful Fibonacci wave relationships are occurring with today's new Wilshire 5000 high.

Today's peak of 13770.32 is where proposed Intermediate wave (C) = .614 of wave (A)

Also today's peak is where Minor 5 within (C) is 99.4% of Minor 1 using Minor 4 orthodox price.  Seven more points and the ratio would be a perfect 1:1.

Proposed (A)(B)(C) waves:
Proposed (C) wave:
Proposed Minute [v] within Minor 5:
And prices have now just barely edged into 2007 territory after 22 months of rallying.
The proposed extended (v) of [v] of 5 on the SPX.
Eventually the NYAD will break under the long-standing channel line. Will that be real bad for the algo's? I don't think anyone can say for sure at the moment.
And for those who think I may be rushing things still too much, here is an alternate count that allows more time flexibility and a "surprise" final move.


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