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Thursday, January 20, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 January [Update 5:41PM]

[Update 5:41PM: If Amazon was in an Ending Diagonal  Triangle wedge pattern, prices could collapse back to under from where the ED started.  So roughly thats at least back quickly to $150. Technically it aligns with that as major negative divergences on MACD, OBV, CMF and other.
I think the squiggles posted yesterday worked out well for a wave count as an extended wave five in this first wave down.

I reworked the degree labels and bumped them up one degree but the count from yesterday is intact.

Note the rebound wave is an [A][B][C] so far. It has retraced around 38%. Is this enough for a wave (ii)?

EWP mentions 2 things concerning our situation here:
1) Extended fifth waves usually retrace back to at least the price of the subwave two of five.
2) If a corrective zigzag pattern does not achieve a deep enough price retrace, the pattern often will double itself to become a double ZZ.

So using those 2 principles, we may see some upside on the markets tomorrow to fulfill a deeper price retrace.

The DJIA may reach a new recovery high as it has not participated in the selloff (seems corrective down on the DOW) and may be signalling it intends to end its week on a new recovery P[2] high.  However its a good bet that it will be on its own in that regard. Then we go into the weekend with a new DOW P[2] high who could possibly claim to be bearish over the weekend on that? (answer: me!)

The Wilshire squiggles as I think it makes the truest patterns:

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