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Thursday, January 27, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 January [Update 6:02PM]

[Update 6:02PM: Another look at the dollar chart and the proposed Ending Diagonal on wave (c) of [ii] down.  We have wave i - iv overlap. I realize its not a perfect ED wedge as wave iii is longer than 1 by a little, however we'll go with it for now.
Another look at the last wave v of (c) of [ii] on the dollar.  We may need to get down to the trendline.
On my stockcharts chart, we may be looking at another hit on the long-term trendline.]
ORIGINAL POST
The proposed Intermediate wave (C) of P[2] is now exactly a Fibonacci .618 (.61848 to be exact) of Intermediate wave (A) at today's high, less than a point and a half from a perfect .618 in price.  At this point we can also say we have every single subwave down to the minuette (pink) level accounted for and perhaps even sub-minuette level.

Its a valid EW structure. 22+ months in the forming and a time/price/waveform structure that fulfills the duty of a counter-trend primary wave rally.  

If (C) does not equal (A) then the most common relationship is (C) = .618 of (A).
There feels like a Black Friday or Monday is coming.  The riots in the Arab world continue and sometimes things come unglued so fast that we have no time for debate whether we need a 10% market pullback or not. It'll likely happen quicker than anyone can imagine. This market may be setup for a flash crash event or two. The algo's simply don't care.

How about a 10% market drop in one day?? Egypt proved it was up to the task.

The dollar is perhaps close to getting extremely bullish.  A flight to safety. I am looking at an (a)(b)(c) down on the dollar http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TUCNafQE8TI/AAAAAAAAIiM/Tj-7M_pvu-Q/s1600/2011-01-26-TOS_CHARTS.png

Who wants the Euro? You can have it. Its backed by no national army and no common heritage and an illegitimate political system at that. The dollar is. Thats reality. Thats the way it has always worked throughout history. The dollar may eventually fail altogether, but the Euro sure as hell will fail first in my opinion.

Zooming in, we are looking for an [A][B][C] down for the last subwave v as I have proposed the entire wave (c) is an ending diagonal pattern. But we have to be patient.
Some Wilshire counts. Intermediate (C)
A slight variation on Minor 5 versus what I show on the hourly chart above.
A look at proposed Minute [v] of Minor 5. It is a difficult pattern and is very unsteady looking. 
The SPX count more or less based on the NYAD cumulative line.
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