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Monday, January 3, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 January [Update 9PM]

[Update 9PM: Best guess for the SPX e-minis futures count.
A closer look at pink Minuette (v) of [iii]. Minute [iv] would ideally hold in price above the previous subwave four which is Minuette (iv) of course.]
[Update 7:33PM: For those that think that wave (C) was too short in length versus (A) I applaud. You were right as it has extended to a more satisfying level.  Reconsidering the wave structure below of the SPX (to essentially match the GDOW chart beneath that)  we may have an orthodox wave (A) top of 1150.

When using that orthodox top in both price and time, we come to some interesting wave relationships that are coming upon us.

But more or less at 1299 on 19th of January, Minor 5 within (C) would equal wave 1 within (C) using Minor 4's orthodox price low of 1180. This is satisfying considering Minor 3 expanded 1.59 times wave 1.

At 1299 SPX on January 19th, Wave (C) would be approximately .618 times wave (A) both in time and price on that date give or take a few days and points using 1150 as wave (A) orthodox price.

BEST ESTIMATE at this time - target box would be 1291 - 1309 within a matter of 3 weeks in time. This is depending on the breakout support holding (1256 area) and pivot support (1254.19)

A breach under the 1251.48 (or perhaps 1254.19 pivot) would be indicative that the wave structure up is likely over. 

Will it do that? Well, if my squiggle count is correct it seems too good to be true.
[Update 6:53PM: GDOW made a new recovery high. So we can say the minimum has been met. ]

[Update 5:10PM: Another look at the SPX proposed Minute [iii] and NYAD and NDX weekly counts:]
NYAD daily:
NYAD weekly looks quite mature and is in fact reaching toward the upper channel line.
NDX new highs makes for a satisfying pattern from the early 2000's lows. We'll call it a 5-3-5 cycle-sized wave zigzag for now.

Primary count is that Minute [iii] of Minor 5 is finding its peak. Perhaps one more high tomorrow for Minute [iii] and perhaps we get non-confirmations between some indexes.

The waves are playing out much as they have at many degrees of trend for P[2].  The wave ones have seemingly done a role- reversal with wave threes at many degrees of trend as being the backbreaking power wave. Then wave three trudges along in a haphazard manner until the end where it seems to find life again and reach where it needs to go. I think this role-reversal helps identify this P[2] - (or even if its a primary X wave) - as the biggest bear market primary degree rally ever seen. I will make a separate post on this peculiar aspect probably later tonight or tomorrow.

I suspected my top alternate count was going to pan out as I showed last week beginning on the 30th.

The NDX may be end up diverging.  Perhaps it will find its Minor 5 high many trading days before the SPX does.

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