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Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 February

The bar was just raised yet again for the market. The SPX new wave marker is 1275.10, our Minute [iv] of Minor 5 wave low. A breach of this price will signal a reversal and the end of the 5 wave up structure. Today's gap up could very well turn out to be an "exhaustion" gap if it closes in a few short days.

The market crashed from August 2008 until March of 2009, a span of 8 months.  It has now taken almost 23 months to rally back to this point and recapture the losses.  But here we are.

We have a very solid Elliott wave pattern on all timescales. Note the Fib relationship on the SPX.
Minor 5 on the SPX. I suppose the [w][x][y] count for Minor 4 was indeed the correct interpretation.
A look at proposed Minute [v] of Minor 5. I'd rather the market end with a "bang" than a whimper.
Wilshire shows proposed Intermediate wave (C)
Lining up the FIB markers on key pivots.  Also note the 50% marker should be approximately near or on the blue boxed area (virgin wave space). We are already at [v] = .618 [i].
Another stab up at the PVT long term trendline.
I was going to show this small positive divergence on the breadth thrust last night. Well, it panned out for today at least.  Yet we are still well below and possibly a long term divergence. Its not today that makes the market, its what follows today. 
GDOW shows why I prefer the (A)(B)(C) count overall.
Dollar at (c) = (a) if thats what it is (zigzag wave [ii]). Its hard to label it as anything other than what I have it for now.
New high on the NYAD today. But I don't expect there has to be any kind of negative divergence. P[2] has not been that kind of rally.

The up channel line must be deemed important. The market doesn't want the party to end. A solid break of the line will signal weakness perhaps. I think the market knows this. Today had to be a massive up day or else we start to slip under. 

The market had no choice here.  But can it keep thrusting higher? I say no.
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