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Friday, February 18, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 18 February [Update 7:28PM]

[Update 7:28: The monthly technical picture on the Wilshire 5000 shows the last resistance line upon the markets. It should be formidable.  Way outside the BB. A close back inside before February is out would be a start for the bears.]
[Update 6:32PM: Its not without reason I am bearish at the moment. For instance take India's Nifty index where it lost some 18%, almost a bear market, while our DOW just chugged to multi-year highs.

It has good waves and Fib ratios going for it and we need to keep an eye on it for price overlap.  It printed a nasty bearish engulfing outside day candle.

The opposite occurred at the 2008 India Nifty top.  The day it topped on January 8, the US market Wilshire had already plunged 14% and within another week was plunging lower toward its own 18% loss mark.

India eventually "caught up" to the US market downside by printing 2 monster down days on Jan 21st and 22nd 2008.

So its interesting relationships to say the least and it is something worth considering.
[Update 6:02PM: Non-confirmation watch. It would be appropriate if the Transports make a new all-time high. likely the Industrials will still be well below if that happens. We already have non-confirmations going on with the NASDAQ 100 and midcaps, maybe with small caps soon to follow.

And then we have the banks at the bottom. The banks seem to be saying its all a cruel lie.
It "feels" like one last great buying panic frenzy is about to take place.  The upside is accelerating and some bullish counts has this as the "third of a third" primary wave [3] up.   Will it turn out to be? Is it already happening?  Market internals seem to be waning since the kickoff of last July at 1010 SPX.  Low volume and super-leveraged market. I propose it is a false hope.

A third of a third should never retrace. In other words, if we are in a third of a third up, then you can kiss any retrace to 1300 goodbye.  A third of a third is where I place my virgin wave space blue box.

Its almost as if the market knows all this and even though we have a (A) (B) (C) structures all over the place, it insists on fooling the greatest and inflicting the greatest pain regardless. In the end the bears may be right that this is not a true third wave up, but they will have been too broke to do anything about it anyways.

So it feels like we are starting the "endgame" phase of this monster bear rally known as P[2]. It may go with a bang.  I wonder if a high volume shoot is coming. A parabola sort of.   A great "fake" third of a third.

The underlying credit markets have been rumbling.  Europe's debt problems are festering like a sore

Irish banks are constructing their own Ponzi scheme

And of course, Big Ben is printing quicker than ever

Don't forget we have uprisings beginning to flame across the world including here in the US (Wisconsin).

Uprisings are indicative of the greater trend in bearish social mood despite the world rally.

None of this is bullish in even the remotest way. A "Ponzi moment" constantly lurks around the corner always gnawing at the mind. The madness of men to run in herds is amazing and who woulda thought we are looking at 1350 handles on the SPX 23 months ago? Was anyone?  Now its all about catching the bubble.

The US credit markets are rumbling too. MUB may be prepping itself for a wave 3 down.  The retrace down since the 2 high has overlapped so the we may be looking at a counter-move as I have labeled.
Remember, if you think this is the middle of a third primary wave, it will have to run a lot lot higher as these middle thirds are supposed to be just that - in the middle. So my Fib chart showing the .618 markers will be blown away if thats the case. We shall see indeed.   I say its a great fakeout. Time will tell.
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