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Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 22 February [Update 9:15PM]

[Update 9:15PM: I see many were looking for a sustained dollar move up today however I was not.  I am uncertain about the dollar near-term but I still like my count on futures as the best thing going for now.

My count has the dollar moving down to a wave [ii] low between the 2 red parallel lines. Thats about the best guess I can make at the moment. Will that mean new equity highs? Not necessarily of course.]
The bigger picture is even more muddier.  But it is universally known that the dollar is going to be worthless yes?  And yet its still above lows from 3 years ago.  

I would not be surprised to see it go into the ALT:[2] or (2) range in the chart below but I expect it to hold above the 2008 lows. Prechter has the [1] up as a cycle wave I. Now if we go into my [2] range, that could very well be a cycle wave II down instead of primary. But thats a moot point we can determine far off into the future.

It is interesting though that dollar sentiment long-term is reaching a low on what could be a wave [1]-[2], (1)-(2) setup just how its supposed to be.  A big final move down in the dollar may give gold a turbo-boost toward $1500 and maybe even that $1550+ mark as I have been anticipating
[Update 8:20PM: French CAC. Price action is not impulsive. Smacks more of an ED pattern. We'll find out soon enough as you know the guideline with ED's is they retreat in price very fast to below where the ED pattern started. That would be the (B) wave price.

And bank runs are inherently "Ponzi moments".   ]
[Update 6:16PM: NASDAQ100 comparison to the Composite.  This is still a major non-confirmation in progress although I don't ever see this mentioned much as a bearish factor. It is for as long as it lasts.
[Update 4:52PM: NYAD. Right or wrong, the count has guided us well for the past 6 months.  But again, if its correct, it needs to confirm. A solid break of the 2 year uptrend channel would be a good start.
[Update 4:40PM: Here is a simple chart showing the proposed Intermediate wave (C). You can see the top alternate count on it.
I have been proposing that Minute wave [v] from the 1275 pivot to the 1344 high was an extended wave five structure.  I wasn't sure the exact count but figured it was getting close  perhaps with an eye on the .618 Fib target for wave (C) related to (A).

An extended wave five, like an ending diagonal triangle, results in market exhaustion. And like an ED count, once extended wave fives finish, they usually produces a quick price collapse back to under from where the extended wave five started in this case under 1275. So far so good.   We await what prices may do in the next few days to confirm.   (It is one reason we look for such structures along with ED counts because they can be a very profitable short-term trade that produces reliable minimal targets.)

So the move down today appears to be a new structure and not a related wave to the proposed wave [v] up, at least for now  Question is, is it corrective? And if so to what degree?  If its corrective my top count would be we have seen Minor 3 of (C) high and this is Minor 4 likely to last a few weeks minimum.

Down volume ratio and decliners ended the day on an accelerated note.  Selling intensity a bit higher than the last correction.
Proposed SPX count. 
Of course the primary count has P[3] beginning.  Yeah, yeah, I know. Well we have a  near perfect Fibonacci ratio met between (C) and (A) so we'll roll with it for now.  The top ALT is listed on the charts above.

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