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Thursday, February 3, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 February [Update 8:30PM]

[Update 8:30PM:  My apologizes to regular posters who had to endure some bad language and threads today. Sometimes I am unable to monitor the board in a timely manner and miss people that need banning.  I have taken care of it hopefully now.

Bottom line is comments are getting out of hand and people will be banned from now on if they insist on acting like Yahoo board trolls - i.e - nothing to offer and a waste of bandwidth.  Again, comments are meant to be fun, informative and yeah, sometimes we can poke each other,  but the nasty hate and trollish behavior  can go somewhere else.

We have no need to change our wave structure at the Intermediate nor Minor wave level at this time. I even suspect the Minute levels waves are correct. At least thats what makes sense now.

If this is not a near-perfect EW  5 wave structure, then I don't know what is.  Thats about the bottom line here.  I am not even talking in terms of P[2] or whatever. I am merely talking about this structure here since the July low.  How would anyone be able to label it anything different, at least at this juncture?

But like all 5 wave structures, there needs to be an actual top of wave 5.  That is what we are looking for unless the market tells us we have interpreted this whole thing wrong.  I see no evidence just yet to conclude we are wrong about this being a 5 wave structure. And that is the larger point here.
A five wave structure that completes gets corrected at the very least. The ENTIRE move is corrected.  Therefore a move in prices to the previous subwave four price range is normal. This is at least to 1219 SPX. That is the theory.

So lets not talk in terms of P[2] tops tonight. Lets not deride this count for the sake of deriding the humble blog author. Lets talk waves here.  We have what surely looks like 5 waves.  Under that premise, the structure must soon end and be corrected, often to some Fibonacci retrace level.

Now it is certainly possible we are only looking at a part of a larger structure. But as I said, there is no strong evidence in wave theory that we have grossly misjudged our Minor wave markers.  In fact , the technicals reinforces our count if anything. Indeed if we were to suppose we are seeing something partial, it is we who would be making a dangerous assumption only based on feelings and the fact that there is a persistent trend in place. (Which by the way, all trends end of course somewhere.)

The problem is Minor 5 would have had a "valid" end at, say, 1246. But it didn't end. It also had a valid end at 1278, 1296 and 1302. But it didn't end.  There may be more "valid" spots but sooner or later you run out of waves.

Yet the more misfires on finding the top of wave 5, the better the wave structure develops and the more you can hone in on the target. Of course by then you are regarded as the "boy who cried wolf" and discredited (even though all you really did was point out the potential for the end of wave 5 - i.e.- a "valid count" - its ultimately up to the market). That is the nature of watching the market no matter if you're counting waves or not. Whether you are some humble blogger or well-connected insider, we all really cannot be sure.

So here we are yet again, with the potential for a valid wave structure completion or near completion. We have alternates of course.

Ultimately it is of course up to the individual or not to "buy the dip".
Squiggles.  We are approaching a logical spot for wave [v] of Minor 5 high. Any further extensions will be labeled as such.  For instance, the ALT:i on the chart below would have made a fine wave [v] of 5 top. However if wave [v] chooses to extend (and it certainly can), this spot then becomes wave (i) subwave of [v] instead of [v] itself.
Dollar showing some life as I speculated this morning.
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