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Monday, February 7, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 7 February [Update 7:05PM]

[Update 7:05PM: Possible INDU count.]
[Update 6:30PM: The best we can do is try and count the subwaves of Minute [v] of Minor 5.  We have at at least 3 preferred counts depending on what the market does tomorrow morning.

Option 1 is more straightforward and allows for the highest prices overall.
Option 2 is EWI's count. It shows an extended wave (v) of [v], thus "one more wave".  
Option 3, I use the Wilshire for form. It would show a gap down open tomorrow and overlap with wave (i) of [v] and then one more a-b-c zigzag higher perhaps to that magic 1333 SPX mark to form an ending diagonal triangle. Wave (v)'s price high would then be limited by rule as wave (iii) cannot be the shortest.
Here the ED on the SPX. Remember (iv) and (i) need to overlap for a true ED count.  If that happens, 1333 area is about as high as wave (v) can go by EW rule.
Apple's long term monthly. Overbought? You bet.  This month is where [5] = [1] in time.
CRB is a clear ABC pattern counter-move.
30 year yields may be topping. Daily sentiment is very low as reported by EWI at only 8% bulls. Wave (2) retrace may be in order for yields.

New bull market? Ok I guess financials are just badly lagging huh? Still trying just to break last year's high.
Today's up move closed an open SPX gap at 1316.29-1321.97 created on 26 June, 2008.

The ED pattern as supposed on Friday does not work but something else may be in work. For now we should just count something more normal.

Placing the 50% Fib marker at the blue boxed area yields today's high at least.  The other method is aligning the 38.2 and 61.8 Fib markers at the top of [i] and bottom of [iv].  That yields a higher target into the 1330's. 1333 is a doubling of the 666.79 low.

The basic count stands for now:  Minute [v] of Minor 5 of Intermediate (C) and searching for (v) of [v]. Call it P[2] or if you prefer to call it a primary or cycle-sized X wave, it doesn't matter for now as the form is still the same: 5-3-5 zigzag.
I'll have more later like bonds and the dollar.
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