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Saturday, February 26, 2011

Weekend Charts and Stuff [Update 10:50AM]

[Update 10:50AM: I forgot another reason I have to lean toward a megaphone ED pattern is Sentiment Trader's STEM model has reached a very low at the end of Friday.
Barring a wave (iii) down next week, which the market is certainly set up for the primary count leans toward probably the megaphone ending expanding diagonal triangle pattern I posted Friday.  This is based on a few factors:

1) Friday's market internals were broad-based enough to carry back toward market highs. This is the main reason by far.
2) Too many are calling for a correction. Even the mainstream media mentioned "we have 5 waves down" and expect prices to move to 1275. That really bothers me. I think this sentiment needs to shake back out.
3) Too many wave counters on the same page. Bulls and bears alike calling for more corrective down at the least.
4) Big fat SPX gap down near the highs.
5) Not enough short-term non-confirmations between indexes at the 1344 high.
6) 2 year bull anniversary mark would mark a convenient top.
7) Megaphone ending pattern would be appropriate in which the market, through the HFT's, keep "lurching" upwards at the end. Retail mom and pop will be lured in some more.
8) We need to see EWI all screwed up in their counting before this is over. They don't like megaphone ending count patterns.
9) Dollar may need a tad more down and we should see "death of the dollar" on TIME magazine or something. In other words, headed for complete bearish sentiment. Yet I expect 2008 dollar lows will hold firm.
10) Gold likely needs to stretch its legs toward a proper wave 5 of (5) of [5] high which has not quite occurred yet.
11) We corrected exactly 50 SPX points. Seems a convenient number.
12) VIX gap up gets closed.

These last few items (dollar, gold) may not need to directly correlate with an inverse relation with stock prices. But for now, I threw them in there.
Market internals. Its reasonable to expect, at least at this moment, that the highs will be challenged.
NYAD keeps bouncing at the trend line but sooner rather than later, it won't be able to any more. It just seems like its missing another new high or so.
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