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Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 March [Update 9PM]

[Update 9PM: E-minis shows what looks like a giant [a]-[b]-[c] down from peak. If the low holds and it can regain major support, then Minor 4 is solidly on the table.
Here is a better look at roughly where the major support, which is now resistance, resides. So a further move up and a test of resistance would be perfectly normal.
[Update 8:34PM: GS upgraded NFLX today to "buy". Thats about all you need to know as the Squid wishes to get a better short entry no doubt.
[Update 6PM: Some world indexes and charts and stuff.

30 year yield count still working like a charm. A push down to C would indicate that equities might need to sell off some more.
CAC proposed ED pattern calls for a price collapse below from where (C) started. So far, so good.
DAX feeling the pain.
FTSE playing footsie.
GDOW has broken under key price and wave marker support.
Long term Nikkei. The last [C] wave is likely to break their backs.
Finally a decent break under the 2 year trendline of the A/D line.
If we are to stick with the P[3] down count, today's sharp rebound and wave overlap with yesterday's price low seems to indicate more of a first subwave (ii) of [iii] rather than a wave four of some degree. That implies that today was not a "third of a third" event although it looked that way this morning. That interpretation implies an even larger sell-off wave down is coming soon. I shan't get too cute with squiggles and will give the market room to fulfill larger bear wave patterns.

However with that said, the market obviously needs at least one lower low under today's low soon for the bear count to remain in effect.  But for the bears, it is still below broken support and it is still trending lower for the near term.
The top alternate is that Minor 4 has reached its corrective price and likely that was the low of Minor 4 today. It has fulfilled the channel quite nicely, has room for a wave 5, and has not broken price in my blue box area. 

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