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Thursday, March 24, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 March [Update 9:07PM]

[Update 9:07PM: Squiggles. I really am trying to find a bull count in here but the only one is a 1-2,1-2,1-2 with the third 1-2, supposedly a subwave, being the largest which doesn't work well.

Hence the double ZZ.
[Update 5:20PM: Alternate count calls for at least sharp Minute [ii] of Minor 5.
No matter what your opinion about my leading expanding diagonal count, you must admit it has guided us correctly to exactly the sweet spot for the proposed formation. The past few days I called for an ideal move to 1308-1312 SPX before Minute [iv], a proposed double zigzag, ended. Well we are here and the double ZZ Minute [iv] looks wonderful.
Via Sentiment Trader we have their short term model, or STEM MR which is a concoction of the S&P 500 price oscillator, cumulative tick, put/call ratio data and TRIN molded into one indicator, at an extreme overbought level. I haven't seen it this extreme in quite a while.

So at the least, the market needs to work off this overbought. The key for bulls is if the overbought gets worked off in yet another "running" correction that maintains prices somewhat and holds key supports. If not, volume comes back in and drives prices much lower ala the primary count - leading diagonal.
I'll have more in a bit.
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