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Thursday, March 31, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 31 March [Update 8:27PM]

[Update 8:27PM: I haven't given up on the idea of a huge ending diagonal triangle in IYR. One of the attributes of an ED pattern is a price collapse from exhaustion. That obviously has not happened so we must suppose it will yet again make a new high. I see no "blue box" areas in (C). Nothing but overlap and wedging.
[Update 7:35PM: Transports short term count may carry it near its all-time daily closing high. But probably comes up short.]
Dollar count hanging tough.]
[Update 6:59PM: Read, bookmark and email this this article  to as many misinformed people you can find. Found via Zero Hedge.

As I, (indeed most of the regular readers of this blog) also follow my three favorite blogs  , Mish and Karl  we are well aware of the details of the pillaging of America that has been going on.

But never have I see it presented so concisely. Again, email that article to everybody you know regardless if you think they will "get it" or not.

[Update 6:18PM: 30 year yield count]
[Update 6:02PM: I added a mid-channel line to the DJIA chart below. This convinces me my blue channel is relatively correct as P[1] bounced off the mid-channel line nicely.]
[Update 5:53PM: Channels can be somewhat subjective, particularly over an 80 year period. However I like my Supercycle channel line better than EWI's.
The crash in 2008 occurred when it could not regain this line. It would make a fine target for Minor 5. Remember the whole premise of those who propose a P[3] up is that the market will bust through this line and accelerate upwards. Lord help us if that happens as the bubble will be more dangerous than ever.

We shall see if the market is ready to dance again above this line.

Today went as expected. Consolidation Minute [iv] of Minor 5 is the count.  Looking for a flat or triangle but it seems all the corrections so far have been zigzags. So any will do and I would expect [iv] to overlap into SPX 1319 price territory minimum.

Gap down (or up for that matter) might be what the market is setting up for and then it gets covered.
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