[Update 6:07PM: Struggling with coming up with a bear wave (ii) (or [ii] if you prefer) since the recent chop low stands out as an a-b-c- down move. So for the SPX, that would imply a wave (ii) or [ii] high somewhere between 1332 and 1344 which would be a narrow window.
[Update 5:24PM: Keeping with the Minor 4 theme, a look at the SPX gives some targets with the presumption of a 23.6% Fib pullback. We likely have the wave [a] set. Now looking for a wave [b]. Wave [b] could turn out to be a triangle, or a zigzag if it breaks above 1332.
One thing that stands out is that it has been a tough market these past few weeks.
The longer prices maintain, the more evidence that a Minor wave 4 is tracing out. So tonight we explore the Minor wave 4 count. After all, the bear count is easy - we can just say a wave three down is coming (heh).
CONSIDERING MINOR 4
1. Fibonacci: A Minor wave 4 should pullback at least a minimum of Fibonacci 23.6% of the previous wave three. We have not come close to this number yet which suggests that the market will eventually head down in prices some more. A 23.6% pullback would take us into the price range of the previous subwave [iv] which is normal.
2. Channeling: Minor 4's prices should ideally complete an EW channel for Intermediate wave (C). A move sideways and a bit lower would accomplish this.
3. Form: A triangle or some double combo would be preferable but there is a good case to be made that all Minor sized and above corrections for P have all been zigzags. So I would not rule out yet another zigzag in fact my wave chart suggests that may be the case.
4. Sentiment: Naturally the bullish sentiment will be washed out somewhat with a Minor-sized correction. Not sure that has happened enough yet. A further correction in time and prices would do the trick certainly.
CONSIDERING THE BEAR COUNT:
Bears need to break major support at 1271. And it needs to head down pronto. A super-sideways wave two is getting a bit long in the tooth and losing credibility as a wave count. On my Wilshire chart above the blue box area needs to be breached.