There is ample reason to believe P has begun. Sure we may get another squeaker high on some indexes and form a larger non-confirmation pattern within the markets, I certainly won't rule it out as we are keeping a eye on the short term patterns. But the larger stance to take I think is a bearish one.
This Nikkei/ DOW chart stands out with the non-confirmation so far.
The CAC is also a very bearish-looking wave chart over a length of time.
An important chart for a major world index I am watching is India's. Looking for a 5th wave down to confirm a large bear market is in progress. A break into wave 1's price range would be troublesome from a bearish standpoint.
China looks "cheap" until you zoom out and realize it is still quite elevated.
Wave labeling color code as follows (note - [brackets] used in lieu of circles for convenience sake) :
Grand Supercycle - BLUE - [I] [II] [III] [IV] [V] - [a] [b] [c] Supercycle - GREEN - (I) (II) (III) (IV) (V) - (a) (b) (c) Cycle - PINK - I II III IV V - a b c Primary - BLACK -      - [A] [B] [C] Intermediate - RED - (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) - (A) (B) (C) Minor - BLUE - 1 2 3 4 5 - A B C Minute - GREEN - [i] [ii][iii] [iv] [v] - [a] [b] [c] Minuette - PINK - (i) (ii)(iii) (iv) (v) - (a) (b) (c) Subminuette - BLACK - i ii iii iv v - a b c Micro - RED -      - [A] [B] [C] Submicro - BLUE - (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) - (A) (B) (C) Miniscule - GREEN - 1 2 3 4 5 - A B C
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