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Tuesday, April 26, 2011

E-minis

Looking for a viable chart pattern. The only thing that stands out is a potential ascending triangle.  This actually makes sense as the rise from the low could not match the previous high, thus prices try and triangulate and eat the bid in order to again challenge and take out the highs. 

This is partly often why triangles occur in the fourth wave position.  Bullish sentiment typically is still running very high, yet prices begin to show signs of fatigue in an eventual fifth wave weakening rise.  The mismatch between aggressive bullish sentiment (everyone is "in" at that point and nothing left to sustain prices) and weakening internals results in a correction that corrects at least the entire five wave rise for starters.  

If this pattern is correct, I would expect prices again to stall out here and fall away back down eventually to the ascending lower line and likely even a break under the line in a false bearish break which typically happens with E waves. 

So as related to the cash index SPX, I would suspect that huge 6.5 point gap up last week will be closed or at least partially closed.  It would be the approximate next "dip buy" spot I guess if you want to call it that.(although I dislike that term) and may mark wave "[e]" in an ascending triangle.

The nice thing about triangles from a bear point of view is that the new high breakout, if it comes, is all that is required. We can set a triangle price target but if all the buying power was "used up" in both forming the triangle and the subsequent breakout, the price target of the triangle can be lower than anyone expects.
The DJIA is another story.  We have again seen it stall/fall away at the proposed Supercycle line.  We have a breadth divergence locally occurring also which may portend a wave down in prices to come.
Good Luck today. Fed worship is no doubt running at a fever pitch.

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