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Friday, April 29, 2011

E-minis [Update 3:13PM]

[Update 3:13PM: A very detailed count of where I figure the market is about now. I feel like I got a good read on things again. I figure we are soon due a sharp little minuette (iv) of [iii] correction either gap down Monday or something like that.
[Update 1:30PM: Tweaked the e-mini count to match the cash index count.]
[Update 12:55PM: best guess squiggle count for Minute [iii] of Minor 5.  Within Minute [iii], once again I have projected the first subwave to be the longest as has been mostly the case at many wave degrees the entire P[2] bull. This is no small matter, it helps identify this entire P[2] rally as counter trend against the primary trend (down).
Best guess count as for Minute [iii] of Minor 5
If we are in Minor 5 up, which is now my primary count, we need to have a target range. That range is 1367 - 1396.

This range is derived from where Minor 5 = Minor 1.

1367 is in pure price point terms.

1380 is roughly in percentage terms.  I.E.- Minor 1 advanced the market 10.5%, if Minor 5 advances the market another 10.5% you'd get about 1380ish.

1396 is where you place a line measuring the length of Minor 1 on a log chart and project it for the length of Minor 5 in log scale. This is where the "it looks right" comes into play visually.
I thought it was important that we establish a target range for Minor 5 now that we think we are indeed in Minor 5.  I was short-changing the range to 1367 maximum because I was only thinking in pure price terms of 5 = 1.

Incidentally, the lowest price point we can probably expect for Minute [iv] is 1344, a retest of breakout resistance.  I don't expect 1339, the top of [i] to be revisited until Minor 5 is over.

There is no reason to suspect an ED will occur as Minor 1 is clearly a leading diagonal, it would be unorthodox for 5 to end as an ending diagonal. I do however have Minute [i] of Minor 5 as the extended wave therefore I suspect Minute [iii] will be shorter in length as I explained in this chart last night

So to recap this is my primary count and my target range for 5, thus P[2] itself.

So too bad for you who think I was going to crack and give in to the bull emotionally-wise.

If we get to 1400SPX, above my range, then maybe I'll crack. until then lets track Minor 5 the best we can.

The whole discussion above is null if 1339 price point is breached.
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