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Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~27 April 2011 [Update 9:29PM]

[Update 9:29PM: Oil update, on track for an ED pattern high. That would align with a panic-selling dollar low perhaps. No doubt, things are getting extreme in all markets, worldwide. How long it lasts is why we count waves.   
[Update 8:42PM: The final wave (5) of the NYAD count eerily reminds me of the way Cycle wave V in the S&P500 advanced from 1987 to 2000.  Seemingly never-ending with perhaps an extended wave three. Yet the underlying clues - see the indicator note at the bottom - are on my side at the moment ( I think!)

What will it take to change or make me doubt my view? Well lets say the daily A/D ratio or volume up ratio pops radically to the plus side as it did during the 2010 correction.   So far that has not been the case. If its coming then so be it. But until then, I have the count of an Intermediate (A)(B)(C) - P[2] to be precise - in large part because of this chart.]
[Update 6:42PM: Debunking (arguing against) the P[3] UP wave count. This isn't my bearish bias talking in this chart, it is simply EW theory.

We are approaching the point where one of the 2 EW camps ( long term bullish or bearish) will be vastly wrong. Sentiment on P[2], or a giant A-B-C zigzag, is at an extreme low I would think just by judging comments over the last months alone.]

[Update 5:30PM: MUB chart update.  That recent triangle is textbook.]
DOW theory is headed for a major non-confirmation. Should the transports close a mere 50 points higher than today, there will be a major non-confirmation with the Industrials.  This is a certainty as the Industrials cannot possibly capture its all time 2007 high without a major non-confirmation period existing with the transports.

If this is a near certainty, can we already declare that DOW theory is flashing bright red for this market? I say so.
It felt as if the beginning of a "zany" period started in the markets today. 

We have Minor 5 = Minor 1, a most common relationship, at 1367 SPX.  We are 11 points or so from that target. Problem is, the wave pattern does not yet sport a subwave [iii] and [iv] within Minor 5 just yet so we are again just probing around waiting for a clearer subwave count to emerge.

We could still be in Minor 4 since it shows no alternation with Minor 2. We have a "3-3" pattern so far since the February prices peaks.  This 3-3 pattern could become a Minor wave four 3-3-3-3-3 running triangle, or a more bearish downturn in prices in a 3-3-5 expanded flat. 

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