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Thursday, April 28, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~28 April 2011 [Update 9:06PM]

[Update 9:06PM:  A proposed Minor 5 count. Since I have wave [i] as the extended wave therefore wave [iii] would be shorter in length.  Then a wave [iv] which should not breach 1339 in price (top of [i]). Then wave [v] should be shorter than [iii].  I have no reason to think an ED would occur as Minor wave 1 was a leading diagonal, the final wave 5 should not be an ED.
[Update 8:30PM: The Nikke/Dow divergence rages on.]
[Update 7:45PM: Yet again another chart with my naturally bearish bias built tight in.  The point of the chart though is to show how Minute [i]'s have been extended waves, [iii] has been shorter and [v] has been a "blip". All we are really looking for is a short consolidation sideways blip we can call Minute [iv] and then a new high we can call [v].  Internals seem to be suggesting that buying power is waning so we'll see.
[Update 6:55PM: And here is the same chart of Intermediate (A). It also had the same down-trending internals. However the peaks and up volume ratio averages during (A) were much higher than was is occurring in wave (C).  Yet still at the end, the market flash-crashed when there was no more buying power.

The price correction was aggressively bought for weeks after the flash crash.
[Update 6:40PM:  Charting the internals of proposed Intermediate (C) yields results that are in line with the current count. This is not my bias at work here, I didn't make this chart, the market did.  And the market's internals are getting harder and harder to muster up a volume ratio that is capable of sustaining the advance much further.]
[Update 4:54PM: Gold. Getting closer.]
[Update 4:47PM: China]
[Update 4:39PM: I added the Dow Utilities to the chart below. They are even more anemic than the Industrials.  Between the three, they are obviously severely fractured long-term. And in Dow Theory, that represents an unhealthy technical condition and is a serious red flag warning.]
A potentially huge bearish signal was triggered today. As of now, the market is officially on the "non-confirmation" clock between the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports.  The Industrials must move to a new all-time closing high in order to confirm the so-called cyclical bull market.  As of now the non-confirmation shows a severely "fractured" and unhealthy advance of the markets.

Normally the the bearish non-confirmation would be resolved in due time and confirm the move. But in this case, unless the Industrials proceed to gain some 1300 points in a short amount of time, the chasm between the 2 indexes will stand out.

This is the largest non-confirmation in history between the two indexes no doubt.
We are only points away from where 5 = 1 within (C). The problem is Minor 5 lacks a decent subwave count at the moment.
Potential squiggles:

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