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Friday, April 29, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 April 2011 [Update 9:37PM]

[Update 9:37PM: Gold, Oil, Bonds and yes Apple.  Gold hit the double trendline as I suggested many weeks ago. looking for some final bumps - (like [iv] and [v] of 5 of (5) of [5].
The potential ED pattern is still in effect for oil. That means once it tops a nasty drop to under $85 should be in order.
Bonds still need some more retracing.
Crapple. I dunno, I'd say its overbought on the monthly and shows signs of rolling over. Probably 200 hedge funds own it.  I don't care what the P/E is, many a tech company has much lower P/E's. When the spark dies thats it. Just look at Intel. Great company. Even does a dividend.  P/E of....11.  Microsoft...P/E = 11.

If any stock has retail piled in by the droves, its certainly Apple.

And its sports a cycle-sized 5 wave structure.

[Update 9:04PM: Its time again to reiterate that the trolls are getting a bit out of hand again.  Either you behave in a decent way and try and add something of substance or you'll be booted for a while. As I said a while back, I don't really care what people think, but the Yahoo crap is going to stop. Thanks have a nice day.

(Unfortunately I do not always get the chance to catch every post and thread)

[Update 6:10PM: Some anecdotal evidence that Apple is indeed near its all-time high. Last night I caught the new South Park episode as I saw it was severely lampooning Apple and Steve Jobs.  They didn't paint Apple in a good light, they ridiculed them rather shockingly harsh

Poor Kyle.

Next week (I think) Apple will be re-weighted in the NASDAQ. I have no idea how it will effect things but it seems they are changing the rules mid-stream.

These 2 events are likely marking near the ultimate top coming in Apple.

They have been lampooned on South Park, there is now nowhere to go but down.

Primary count is the market is working on Minute [iii] of Minor 5 of Intermediate wave (C). The evidence of Minute [iii] is that overbought readings on short term charts have been ignored and trampled over a bit. This has occurred the last 4 days.

Using EW logic, we now have enough of a wave pattern to set price points and key markers.

For instance on my squiggle chart, we have a Blue box area that ideally will not be retraced into until at least Minute [iii] is over. If ii does, then we must be on high alert that another count is taking place.
I still show the alt of a "running" correction either an expanded flat or a running triangle. But as I said, the continual updraft despite overbought has a telltale sign more of a Minute [iii] of Minor 5. However if Minute [i]'s price peak of 1339 is breached, then obviously we have to question the Minute [iii] of Minor 5 count.

Again, I do not expect an ending diagonal triangle pattern (where price of wave [iv] overlaps the price of wave [i]) for Minor 5 since Minor 1 within the same 5 wave structure of Intermediate (C) was a leading diagonal triangle. Also the internal wave structure of Minute [i] doesn't look like a "three" nor does Minute [iii] either.

Also within the context of the larger Intermediate (C), internals are on a downtrend. So that is consistent that we are in a wave 5 move. Again, this is not my bias, I didn't make this chart, the market did!

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