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Monday, May 2, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 2 May 2011 [Update 8:26PM]

[Update 8:26PM: Gold:
[Update 8:19PM: Russell 2000 also shows impulse down patterns much more so than the S&P, DOW and NASDAQ100 futures.
[Update 8:15PM: Some dollar currency pairs updates. We are looking for a possible change in trend by looking for a 5 wave impulse pattern up on the US dollar. Which likely means some of the dollar pairs will also show impulse patterns in the opposite direction. These are pretty good impulse patterns too.

Dollar 5 wave move from its low:
Euro 5 wave move down from its high:
AUS/USD 5 wave move down from its high:
The primary count has us looking for the top of Minute [iii] of Minor 5 of Intermediate wave (C).  The SPX cash index failed miserably to follow the overnight session to its high. So its a decent sign that today was the Minute [iii] high.

We can label the waves several ways and all are acceptable.

I show the futures and SPX in two slightly differing counts:
And the cash index might look better like this if [iii] has topped. Key wave price marker is obviously the Minute [i] high of 1339.  1344 is the February high. So the market does have room to perform a Minute [iv] retrace without violating the Minute [i] price.
A look at the Wilshire daily. Remember, it is proposed that Minute [i] of Minor 5 is the extended wave, thus we expect [iii] to be shorter in price length.
DJIA with the good 'ol Chande Momentum Oscillator showing waning momentum.  The blue line is the Supercycle channel.  Note the potential shooting star candle today.
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