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Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 May 2011

After testing the important April 20th candle (or more precisely previous up gap zone) yet again today at 1313.87 SPX, from a bear perspective we nearly have the perfect "setup" if we are to consider a count of a series of (i)-(ii), i - ii, [1] - [2] (or each a degree higher - that doesn't matter at this stage).

We have a nice base channel that has formed. We have all 3-4 major indexes on the same page - each having a series of lower lows and lower highs and confirming the count.

So we have everything aligned for a "third of a third" wave plunge right through major support at 1312 - 1318 SPX even though certain indicators are perhaps in oversold territory still although today certainly helped relieve some of that oversold. Now we just need the market to follow through.

At the same time plunging through horizontal support and reversing an important up gap and "breakout" candle (20th April), the market would be decisively breaking the up channel lower line from August 2010.
This is the exciting part about EW theory.  We have the perfect setup - now we see if our hypothesis count is correct.  We haven't really had this good a bear setup the entire P[2] until now.

So its up to the market.
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