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Friday, May 27, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 27 May 2011

The market perfectly left itself in a maximum state of ambiguity as far as the wave count.

1. We have 3 waves up so far from the recent support of 1311 SPX.

2. We have the SPX obeying the downtrend line.

Tuesday will be important.  A higher high above today's intraday peak makes the up move from 1311 a 5 wave move which implies more upside.

A breach under 1325 SPX prior to any higher high involves overlap with yesterday's intraday peak which would indicate a three wave counter-move up.

The bearish ones-twos count would have us break down hard.
The more bullish Minor 4 triangle count would have us pop up early confirming a 5 wave up move, and eventually work higher in a 5-3-5 [d] wave zigzag, preferably to our Fib target of 1358 SPX which would about close the open chart gap down.
What is the preferred count?  The longer term triangle count is more appealing if only because nested ones and twos such as I have charted never seem to pan out.  Also having the market hold up a while longer would alleviate some bearish sentiment readings such as the AAII and some other surveys that have been coming out lately. But yet the bear count is intriguing enough to keep on the board as a count.  After all, its still a downtrend until its not.

If we get our [d] wave zigzag up, it would look like a wave [ii] in a leading diagonal count wave [i].  To be honest those never seem  to pan out either but its certainly a possibility too and is on the radar.

How about this: If we do get a zigzag up, and EWI has a Minor 4 triangle as its primary count, we'll call it a LD. If EWI takes the LD stance, we'll take the triangle stance.
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