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Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 3 May 2011 [Update 7:25PM]

[Update 7:25PM: New dollar sentiment chart out via  This extreme one-sided sentiment cannot sustain for too much longer.  And what does it take to correct sentiment? Rising dollar prices of course.
Primary count is the SPX is tracing a Minute [iv] pullback of Minor 5 of Intermediate (C) of Primary wave [2] of cycle wave c of Supercycle wave (a) of Grand Supercycle wave [IV] to be specific.

A breach of 1339, or the price high of wave [i] of 5, is our "control" on the current count. Again, in theory, there shouldn't be any price overlap between [iv] and [i] unless the market was tracing an ending diagonal triangle under EW guidelines.  Since Minor 1 of (C) was  a proposed leading diagonal, it would be highly suspect to have Minor 5 an ED.  A strong guideline is you can have either one or the other. Besides, the internals of the current rise from 1249 do not count well as an ED pattern.  In other words, Minute [i] and Minute [iii] should both be a-b-c- patterns. Instead they count and look much better as impulsive 5 wave moves on their own.

A backtest of the inverted H&S neckline?
A backtest of the neckline would mean one more move down to test February price high of 1344. Pattern would be a double ZZ for (a) of [iv]:
Regardless of the primary count, the selloff has been pretty impulsive looking on certain indexes and not others.  Not all are in the same count as the SPX and if the count of Minor 5 is correct, certainly not all will make new highs as there should be non-confirmations normally. Again, if 1339 is breached in price, all bets are off on this count of Minute [iv] for the SPX.

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