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Friday, June 10, 2011

E-minis [Update 2:35 PM]

[Update 2:35PM:  I was ready to abandon the triangle count when it looked like things were going to seriously break down. If we are to have a Minor 4 contracting triangle, that would have been pretty much the [c] wave low. VIX still is low and stocks are catching a bid. Is this just the "close-the-DOW-above-12K- effect" or the washout wave v I suggested earlier ? ]

[Update 1:26PM: Note the VIX still in possible consolidation range.  No panic yet. This is my P[3] max bearish down count.
[Update 12:25PM: Every index seems to be confirming today's downdraft. There is no divergence yet.
[Update 12PM: Another trendline hit.
[Update 11:20PM: Going to lunch. Good luck.]
[Update 11:10AM: We've had some market internal breakouts.  Does not really support the notion of a wave v down.  Falling knife here. Good Luck.
[Update 10:58AM: The daily candles shows the bad breadth down occurring.  If the VIX and down volume ratio (and total volume) can accelerate from here and breakout, this is the spot where a flash crash can occur. 

I'm not saying it will happen, just that it may be an ideal spot. Watching market internals for signs of downward acceleration.  
[Update 10:11AM: Updated squiggle. Lower low. Fulfillment of v?  Note the lame VIX and lower down volume ratio versus at other spots in the structure. But no doubt sentiment is maximum bearish at the moment.
[Update 9:30PM: And an even closer look at the squiggles probably means lower lows coming.
[Update 9:10AM: Here is another variation on the squiggles. This is from a Minor 4 triangle perspective.  As you can see I am keenly interested how today plays out. A bearish washout may be actually bullish for sometime next week.  If instead prices hold and chug upwards, that would be perhaps a bearish setup for next week. 
[Update 8:35AM: First attempt at a squiggle count in a while. This is from the ultimate bearish perspective in that the market is working on the first subwave two of three.  Note the possible inverse H&S setup. Also note the blue box area. We definitely had an intra-day triangle the other day where I have red [4] so I'm using that.
The MACD signal lines have recovered with very little price recovery.  That means on a short term scale we are not oversold anymore.  Thats suggests bearish price action.
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