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Tuesday, June 14, 2011

E-minis [Update 4:43PM]

[Update 3:43PM: I think thats 5 waves up. Last wave is an expanding diagonal so I expect prices to fall back under 1285 evntually. Then we get to see exactly what kind of wave count we have overall.

[Update 1:39PM: If this is a "kickoff" wave for the [d] leg - which according to market internals this would be it - , then we have a solid target in for [d] in both time and price.  1340.75 SPX based on 1 leg of a triangle should have close to a .618 Fib relationship with another. In this case [d] and [b].  [b] wave also took 33 days (close to a Fib 34) so 21 trading days for [d] would make sense.

If the market intends to work off excess bearishness on Intermediate type sentiment indicators (for instance the AAII 4 week average) and turn them bullish again, it will take both time and (persistent) price to do so.  Hence why the triangle is nothing to disregard at this stage.
[Update 12:12PM: Having some fun with squiggles. Its a pretty good looking impulse up at the moment with robust internals.  Where I have wave [3] marked is a nearly perfect Fibonacci expansion of 1.618.
Some overnight surge. Not unexpected

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