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Friday, June 17, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~17 June 2011

44.74 up volume ratio surge at the open.  Closed the day at only 2 and almost was negative at one point on the day. Not exactly bull-inspiring.  Nasdaq closed negative with a an up volume ratio of only 33%. DOW closed at 12K. Yeah who could't see that coming? Breaks the weekly losing streak at least.

So the markets sit at the edge of a precipice going into an uncertain weekend with the Greece situation.

The market again has left us again with the largest possible bag of mixed signals.  Put/Call equity ratio closed above 1 for third straight day. Only twice before has it ever done that. Based on that, you'd think we are due for a gob-smacking rally next week. Sentiment measures are largely oversold on many levels to include surveys, technical sentiment data, etc.

The market finished again at the up trendline.

All in all though the SPX keeps losing resistance zones and cannot close above.  It lost 1345 SPX then lost 1312. Then couldn't hold 1295 area. The last one today was 1277 band closed below that after poking above on the big opening surge.  This is not inspiring price action. From a purely technical view, the SPX has consistently lost resistance zones and that has to be a plus for the bears.

Though the SPX closed green today, it actually still closed in a technically weak position beneath support.
VIX closed back within its bollinger bands and that is supposed to be a "buy signal".  Bulls have every reason to buy right here. Technically, this is the "DIP BUY" spot. Volume has not been big on the down slide so that can be considered bullish-friendly.
CONCLUSION
I can give a zillion reasons to be bearish or bullish from a technical or even an EW view.

But lets step back and look at the larger picture: Make no mistake, even if the market manages a rally back toward 1370 peaking sometime in August, I'll still be as bearish as ever overall.  Fundamentally, there are signs of a credit crunch coming in world markets. Those who bet against that in 2007-2008 eventually lost.

Personally I would love to see higher prices again.  Which means it probably won't happen. I skew to the bearish as always. Good luck to both bulls and bears holding through the weekend.
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