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Monday, June 6, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 June 2011

We are at a point where we can see some possible wave clarity. We have 2 competing preferred counts. One is that the market is in a wave 4 triangle and new highs to come this summer. The second is that the market topped at 1370. The bearish count of a third wave down may be winning out looking at market internals

Top bull count is a triangle. We have reached the expected pullback range for [c] although the range has some leeway.
Top bear count is simply a third wave down. The constant selling and internals seems to fit a third wave here.  We also have a Fib target of 1250 SPX where [iii] = 1.618 x wave [i].

The key to the wave count may be that 1311, or the bottom of wave [i] on the bear chart above is not breached prior to a fourth and fifth wave down seen on the daily. Obviously a lot more selling will be in order for this count to be fulfilled.

So overall, we are looking for a daily wave pattern of 5 waves down at Minor degree to confirm a trend change. So far we have a solid 3 waves down.
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