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Saturday, June 18, 2011

Weekend Charts and Stuff [Update 4:55PM]

[Update 4:55PM: IYR weekly.  Look at the remarkable volume drop-off from the 2009 lows to the recent highs. That tells me that everyone that wanted in is just about in already.

I regret making a new thread as the Friday night update has some good discussions going

I proposed the end of the multi-decade long bond run would be marked by a large non-confirmation along the yield curve. I believe we have seen that.
Therefore the 30 year yield should be showing an upward impulse. And I believe we have that:
Yet still looking for a lower low to challenge the blue box area and 62% Fib pullback. Maybe that comes on an equity washout - you know - the old "flight to risk" saying.
Moving to the 6 month chart, I am awaiting a break back above resistance. I believe once that happens and confirms it as support again, we'll have seen the all-time low in the 6 month yield.

The 6 month yield is important as it is close to the 3 month yields in which dictates whether or not the FED will raise interest rates. So an impulse up in the 6 month means interest rate rise is soon to follow. Obviously we have not even confirmed a bottom yet.
Revised my IYR chart to show a (B) wave triangle. And that triangle target was met. We now have 5 waves down at a small degree.
Its hard to be bullish when the weekly Wilshire chart shows a doji candle after some downtrend.  A doji in a downtrend often is only a pause and then a continuation of the downtrend. 

But indicator-wise, there is nothing standing out that suggests we will have an up week or that a major low has been set. Indeed we closed beneath the lower BB yet again.

And look at the NYAD. It has broken its uptrend line.
China has a break under (D) and the uptrend line.
GDOW closed beneath its horizontal pivot support.

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