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Monday, July 11, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 July 2011 [Update 8PM]

[Update 8PM: Haven't given up on the 30 year yield challenging the virgin wave blue box area:
Still DOW theory divergence. Even Richard Russell cannot ignore this one.
All the muck and yet NYAD still near all-time cumulative highs. One more wave up would do the trick.
Gold just keeps showing its strength. Consolidating for a big pop higher?
ORIGINAL POST
Last Friday it was suggested that if 1330 support broke, the market would head toward 1317 horizontal support and the top of the base channel formed by Minute [i] and [ii] of proposed Minor 5. Of course I failed to mention the 50 DMA also resides 1316.44.  All three spots were simultaneously tested today and perhaps ended in a small bullish-type falling wedge. You can also say the bear flag's downside target we were talking about Friday was also fulfilled.

The day ended at 31:1 down volume ratio on the NYAD. Selling pressure was severe.  Perhaps too severe to consider this a Minute [iv]. However we can give it the benefit of the doubt for one day.  A solid break into the BASE channel will signal this is not Minute [iv].
The next best count might be an [e] wave within Minor 4 triangle. That is our top alternate. Price target for [e] would be below 1298 likely. You can see this is one of the most severe sustained daily down pressure of the year. That alone makes one doubt this is a Minute [iv].
Wilshire shows that today aligns well with the cycle lines we have been charting.  That is curious. We shall see if it means anything.
And a zoomed-in look on the cycle lines. The recent 14,431 high is the only "turn" that does not align well. Of course today's low aligns perfectly...
1 Minute chart shows the sustained selling pressure. But the waves lost impulsiveness at the end of the day. We shall see what it brings.
CONCLUSION:
Selling pressure was severe today, but major support at 1316-1318 held along with the 50 DMA for now. Base channel held for now. However, due to the severe selling day, overcoming it to the upside would take an even greater up day.  So there are definite headwinds to the Minute [iv] count.

Due to the severe nature, there is a good chance this is, at best, an [e] wave in Minor 4 and not Minute [iv] within 5.  At worst, we are looking at a lot more severe selling to come and a loss of 1250 support  - yes P[3] down.

For the near term, a bounce back toward resistance at 1330-1333 range wouldn't surprise me though.

I'll have more later.
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