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Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 July 2011

The best EW stance to take at the moment is probably the [e] wave of Minor 4 count. Yes we still have Minute [iv] but only if 1331 - 1333 resistance can be re-captured which it failed to do today in a bit of a reversal.  On the flipside we can easily suppose we are in P[3] down and all hell will break loose.  So call an [e] wave a middle-of-the-road stance.

So we have 1331-1333 which is resistance.  If the SPX can recapture the 1331-1333 SPX level, we can entertain Minute [iv] or a Minute [v] of Minor 5.

At the lower end, we have 1258 SPX. A break of that level would certainly invalidate any thoughts of an [e] wave.  So what we are left with is with the space in between.  That space in between is precisely where an [e] wave would wind up in price. So again, we'll go with that for now.

On the squiggle scale, we still have stocks bouncing on the SPX base channel (although its broken on the Wilshire base channel) and we are still holding in the roughly 1311-1318 support band.  A break of this almost guarantees sub 1300 again even if by only a few points if thats what it decides.
E-mini futures however may suggest the (b) wave bounce is over. We'll see what tonight/tomorrow brings. A lot of uncertainty here in this range so it may take another stab at the upside.
Gold has made a new high as suspected it would. It has all the waves under its belt. However a higher price would certainly look better. Sentiment is still quite low considering Gold is at an all time high!
NYAD supports a Minute [iv] count still:
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