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Thursday, July 14, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 July 2011

Primary count is b of (c) of [e] of 4 of (C) of P[2].  1331.48 may be the price top of (b) regardless.

Still a lot of uncertainty and jumpiness in the markets. At some point an [e] wave (in a bullish-type Minor-sized triangle) should make you think "this is the end of the bull trend, the market is going to go down". Thats the psychology of an [e] wave.  So far we haven't yet had that moment I don't think although the more price creeps down, the more the thinking begins to harden.

Price has certainly been damaged enough on the SPX and Wilshire to fully eliminate the Minute [iv] of Minor 5 count. Even if prices went straight to 1370 area from here I wouldn't call it Minute [v] in principle. I'd just call it a thrust up out of an [e] wave to encompass Minor 5.

However it would certainly "look right" if the [e] wave had lower prices. Specifically, where (a) = (c) for starters at 1288ish would be a start.    I'm counting on prices dipping below 1298SPX at least.
E-minis could be making a descending (b) wave triangle. It looks like consolidation for a thrust lower.
It was speculated last month that the [e] wave, if this is a triangle, would align likely with the debt ceiling talks.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-p7Dm_ucdVpc/Te_d8hwBZDI/AAAAAAAAJRM/llmdP7h_tmI/s1600/spvdailycandle.png

It seems thats the way it is playing. Would a deal be a "catalyst" for a thrust higher at a key junction?  Its almost as if Elliott waves are predicting a done debt deal next week and the market will thrust up as a result.
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