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Friday, July 15, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 15 July 2011

[e] wave down of Minor 4 is still the larger primary count. On the squiggle scale, it appears some kind of (b) wave, perhaps a contracting triangle, is tracing out prior to a thrust lower.

This scrabbly intra-day wave pattern fits a (b) wave triangle, specifically complex wave c of (b).  The shallow sideways wave patterns also nicely fit a (b) wave of [e]. So the intra-day gyrations have enhanced the overall look of an (a)-(b)-(c) 5-3-5 zigzag down for an [e] wave. The "panic" point would be the (c) of [e] and is likely to experience some scary selling. At least thats the theory of [e] waves.

[e] WAVE TARGET = 1287-1288. 
This is based on (c) = (a) within [e] and wave [e] = .618 x wave [c] within Minor 4.  (Since wave [d] traveled farther than .618 of [b], we can still look for one Fib relationship within Minor 4 of .618 to be fulfilled. (I also happen to think it will stop short of testing the 200 DMA as many would expect.)

The best "fit" for Monday would be a opening gap up and then advance toward near term resistance at 1327 to fulfill a "c" wave of (b), then reversal zigzag down for a d wave of (b).
However the e-minis may be completing its own descending triangle so its hard to say whats going to happen Sunday/Monday in comparison of the cash chart SPX and e-mini, all-hours.  There have been significant overnight moves that have not translated to the cash index.

CONCLUSION
Regardless of how the squiggles bounce, the main theme presented is that the SPX requires a (c) wave - a 5 wave move - to complete wave [e] of a Minor 4 triangle.

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