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Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 July 2011 [Update 9:38PM]

[Update 9:38PM: Ok one more wave chart, this time the futures because they have such an interesting wave structure and it was fun to count. Again this is based on that [e] needs to head toward 1286-1287 SPX.

This is a complex count but when you break it down its just a simple 5-3-5 zigzag. We have initial 5 waves down for (a). Then a 3-3-5 expanded flat for (b).  The small blue triangle in the middle is accounted for in b of (b).  Then finally we get 5 waves up to form c of (b).  Then 5 waves down to (c) of [e]. Simple yes?

[Update 9:08PM:
And finally I present the layout for a Minor 5 up count based on 1295 low being the [e] of Minor 4 triangle orthodox low.  We'll know if this count has a chance because 1331 will have been regained in the next  few days.  Another overnight futures gap up move perhaps Thursday morning to kick of [iii], etc. You know the drill.

The striking thing is that Minor 5 may  be a "thrust" and take about 2 weeks or less through the end of July.
[Update 8:45PM: Still would look better on the daily and hourly charts if [e] had one more leg lower to 1287 SPX where [e] = .618 x [c]. And another hit on the rising trendline. A final hard shakeout so-to-speak .
Apple has serious potential to be a blowoff top.  If it closes soon beneath today's closing price of $376, it constitutes a bearish reversal in my book. We shall see in the next few days/week.

Its actually a perfect setup for a bearish reversal. It has the "best ever by far" earnings. It has the media attention. It has record cash flows and record tax-paying lows  It has the full benefits of its cheap Asian labor in full productivity.   It has a sycophantic following .

Revamped the wave count and a pop over the channel would constitute "throw over" if it can close back under the channel. Again, we shall see how it trades.  Its back to $392.55 in A/H's and considering it was $379 in premarket today, well, it doesn't look as impressive in that light considering all the chatter in A/H's about it.
SPX went back toward the 1326-1327 area I mentioned in last nights revamped [e] wave chart.  However I figured it would take a few days but this schizo market likes to do things in one gulp it seems anymore.

Market internals were robust but not earth-shattering to say the least.  We had 85% (5.9:1) up volume ratio days on the NYSE and Nasdaq and only 80% up issues. Fairly nice yes, but not eye-popping and quite reversible.

We are clearly back in resistance area. Is this a (b) wave of [e]?  Or do we have a sprint to new highs while there is a "window" to do so?

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