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Thursday, July 21, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 July 2011 [Update 7PM]

[Update 7PM: Dow Theory divergence watch. Got the potential triple negative mojo working = bearish in my book.
Supercycle channel line update. And yeah look at Breadth thrust indicator on this chart. Its negative diverging in my opinion and noticeable.
[Update 6:30PM: if this is Minor 5 up thrusting out of a wave [e] of 4, then here is the squiggle scenario:
[Update 6:07PM] I see fatigue in the NYAD count and up ratio measures.  Even though we have been up big the last 2 of 3 days, neither was even close to being a 90% up volume ratio day. Today was only 84% on the NYSE and the NASDAQ was merely 68%.  Certainly some weakness showing. So a hard reversal is still a good bet in my book. But from what exact price?  Start with the trendline at 1253ish if it pops up tomorrow in the A.M.
[Update 5:45PM: Another reason to suppose we are in Minor 5 is that it appears the dollar is "thrusting" down as I proposed recently in the dollar charts. I always envisioned this to occur with Minor 5 up in the SPX and it may be the case. (But there is certainly room for an SPX panic wave (c) of [e] in here)
I think we are all getting triangle fatigue. I know I am. The 5 month trading range has been exhausting.

Since both the DJIA and NDX look like 5 wave patterns from the June 16th low, and today's price action, we'll have to entertain that we are in Minor 5 up. Is that the primary count? If the SPX tops the previous 1356 pivot then yes it likely is.  So lets see what happens tomorrow on "debt deadline day".  Either way it should be exciting.

Minor 5 up was supposed to be a thrust out of wave [e] low and it certainly has thrust over the last 3 days so from that aspect, it could be Minor 5.

Minor 5 is also supposed to be technically weaker than Minor 3. It is.

However we may very well still be in wave [e] on the Wilshire and SPX. [e] could be forming its own triangle or we will still get a panic wave down to 1287 SPX. It certainly is not ruled out.  I cannot sit here and tell you futures won't be run down 30 points tonight. They might. We live in strange times and the "herd" is rampaging together to extremes.

However, I can see at least a hit on the upper green triangle line at 1352-3ish tomorrow. Then we see if it can reverse hard.
Wilshire shows proposed Intermediate (C).
Overall picture:
This view of the Wilshire shows the [e] wave going down and hitting the 200 DMA again.
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