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Monday, July 25, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 July 2011 [Update 6:24PM]

[Update 6:24PM: Dollar, Bonds, Gold.  It is no coincidence that all 4 asset classes - to include stocks - show that they may have perhaps have a few more weeks of run time and that they are all potentially making long-term patterns.

Gold - Primary wave [5] high.  In Minute [v] of 5 up.

Dollar - A Cycle wave II low multi-year double bottom.

30 -year Bonds - (2) of [2] major low in yields. With (3) of [3] up in yields soon to commence.

Wilshire 5000 - (C) of P[2].

So all are seeking their endgames I believe.  This was predicted. And it actually seems to be working out that way.

Gold. Shooting for the upper channel lines above? One has to respect that potential. This is non-log scale.

Dollar count. Regardless of the noise, I'm looking at a potential multi-year double bottom here.
Jim Rogers now announced he was short bonds in June. The sideways support has made him feel comfortable to say that perhaps.  I am still looking for a challenge to my blue box area. I wonder if its coming. I must trust that it is. 
[Update 5:51PM: There is a persistent reason in the larger EW pattern that keeps me cautious on the counts. When (C) = .618 x (A) in price was surpassed earlier this year, then perhaps (C) would = (A) in time instead of a Fibonacci multiple in price.

The market is still 3 weeks out from this marker.  The debt ceiling drama will have likely been "solved" by then to everyone's delight that they think they averted a market disaster. I of course rather believe the market is in a major topping pattern regardless.

Yes the debt ceiling may be a drama, but it does matter, it is important, and it does reflect a changing social mood has finally had an impact on the rubber-stamping Congress.

On a Wilshire 1 minute chart you can see a better count may be 5 waves down from Friday's peak and 5 waves down from today's late afternoon high.  So that suggests the short term trend may be down.
NASDAQ100 looks wedgy at the top of a fifth Minor wave.  Thats usually a bearish formation.  But finding the end of the wedge is sometimes a tricky affair.
There is still a valid Minor 5 count but that would require the Wilshire to make higher highs soon.
And of course we have our triangle counts intact, two variations:

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