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Thursday, July 7, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 7 July 2011 [Update 7:32PM]

[Update 7:32PM: Update 6month yield. I pretty much feel confident about this count! After all, there is not much room to go lower.
[Update 7:26PM: Wilshire chart of proposed Intermediate (C) pretty much says it all. Just need another bump or so...
NYAD also confirms this view
[Update 7:10: A correction from earlier: I had stated in my calculations below that 1373 is where Minor 5 = 1. My math was off by 3 points and its actually 1376 SPX where 5 = 1. ]

Primary count is that Minute [iii] of Minor 5 is close to finding its peak price if it hasn't already at today's high.  I then expect a Minute [iv] pause wave.

I changed my squiggle count a bit to be more aesthetically pleasing and conform to my preferred way of counting waves. For instance, the first subwave one of three should advance prices above the previous larger degree wave one. You can see I changed it up a bit. But overall that hasn't changed our count at the top.
Reverse engineering an expected outcome where Minor 5 = Minor 1 within Intermediate (C) yields an expected Minor 5 high of 1373 SPX. Further extrapolating backwards, and assuming Minute [v] within Minor 5 = Minute [i] of Minor 5 (40 points in length) yields a Minute [iv] price low (or orthodox low) of 1333 SPX.   (1373-40 = 1333 SPX).

Therefore the pullback range for Minute [iv] is 1333 SPX. This is a few points above the subwave (iv) of [iii] low of 1330 SPX. The larger wave [iv] price low usually maintains above this previous subwave (iv) low so it all works very nicely in projecting how the rest of Minor 5 may play out in a perfect EW.

So it would look like this:  1356 or maybe slightly higher would mark Minute [iii] top. A pullback then to 1333 SPX maintains a higher low above the previous subwave (iv) price range. That is ideal. Then Minute [v] = Minute [i] within Minor 5 and computes to 1373 SPX thereby making Minor 5 = Minor 1 within wave (C).  Also that would likely put Intemediate (C) approximately equal in time, not price, of a Fib 13 months each.

Additionally, all our Intermediate-term sentiment indicators and surveys that track multi-weeks/month(s) will have likely recovered back into extreme bullish range at a Minor 5 peak of 1373. Some will likely diverge a bit from the highs achieved during Minor 3 and that would be perfectly normal.

EW is easy huh? (sarcasm!)

Yeah now lets see how the next few weeks plays out. We do have the perfect "roadmap" for the rest of P[2]. I would be very pleased to see it play that way.
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