In my mind, 1295 SPX is the key in any bounce situation http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7WsR_Jk95HI/TjiMaJTngoI/AAAAAAAAJnw/-U6IbrDIOKg/s1600/spx.png
That is the price low of where we have a wave (i) marked. If 1296 SPX is reached here without a larger 5 wave pattern down, then that really muddles the picture. For the e-minis that low is 1292 or so. We have some room for a bounce still (a wave four) and not violate that price.
Minor 4 triangle is out due to price violations, but there are other possibilities
The market has yet to break out of this trading range (1249 SPX support) or have better evidence of some kind of 5 wave pattern down on some medium scale - say minuette degree.