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Friday, August 5, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 5 August 2011

The heaviest selling and panic of a 5 wave down bear structure of Minor degree is usually where subwave (iii) of [iii] occurs.  This can be seen on the SPX chart below. Today's selling pressure was much less than yesterday.

So using EW logic, we can reasonably count this move from 1356 as a third wave move -  which we label Minute [iii] - due to the severity of selling.  

The last squiggles to today's low of 1168 lost its impulsiveness over the last day and made a falling wedge shape. The subsequent bounce and what counts as 5 waves up seems to confirm the falling wedge.  The best guess count is that today was (iii) of Minute [iii] and the market is bouncing in (iv) of [iii].  The bounce should be limited to no higher than subwave iv of (iii) which is 1261.  Additionally it should overlap iii of (iii) which is 1234.  So our wave (iv) bounce target range is 1234 - 1261 with a likely target of 1240ish..
Wilshire for form
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