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Monday, August 8, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 6 August 2011 [Update 7:22PM]

[Update 7:22PM; Another view of the longer term wave structure (1) of P[3] down.  Minute [iii] should draw support at 1100 which is also the 38% retrace of P[2].
[Update 6:23PM: Best guess squiggle count. Supposing that today was the "worst" technically, then the simple theory is that it was the (iii) of [iii].
The primary count is Minute [iii] of Minor 1 of (1) of P[3] down.  Intermediate (1), being the first subwave of P[3] down, should try and take prices beyond P[1] which was 666 SPX. Hence is why i have this market's count only in Minor 1.

We are looking for the bottom of Minute [iii] is the best guess count. It may have bottomed today or we get a final capitulation tomorrow.  

Selling pressure was historic.  The market tried to bounce near end of day but broke down yet again.  I have usually suggested P[3] would be stronger than P[1] right out the gate. It has been indeed so far.

H&S shoulders target for the SPX has been reached and then some. Industrials exactly hit its target today. The NASDAQ composite has not yet hit its H&S target.  So we are likely getting close to the end of Minute [iii]..But indeed this knife is sharp.
Squiggle count - I'll work on a more detailed one and post later.
Here is why I have this labeled as Minor 1 - If you have a target of DOW1000, as I do, for the end of the bear market - thats a long way down.  It is also likely to be much quicker than P[1].

The theme is "back to the '70's." Stocks, houses, jobs....

Once the neckline at 666 is broken, there is no support. Thats the vision.

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