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Friday, September 16, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 September

The price action and sentiment very much reminds me of late 2008/early 2009 after the panic crash. The markets gyrated for quite a while sideways and even after a brief plunge to 741, the SPX rallied in a very choppy December and then broke toward a 943 high in early January prior to riding down to an eventual 666 low in March. The 943 high was less than the previous rebound peak of 1007 in early November 2008

Now, as then, the news cycles between hope and worry.  So much the same could be happening here.  1230 SPX is still firmly intact for a high, and it will take a certain market conviction to breach and hold that level as support.  Until that happens, the waves still count as a corrective [iv] of 1 as best count.

So there may indeed be a pop above 1230, but it should be brief if this is a wave [iv].  The 50 DMA is now down to 1228 SPX and the market seems intent on testing it.
The NDX is a very interesting chart.  World markets collapsed and it is now 130 points from its previous high.
It counts well still as a flat. It need not be a wave (ii) of [v] flat, but could be just the second corrective pattern in a double three of Minute [iv].
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