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Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 20 September

Until and unless 1230 SPX gets breached to the upside, the actions of late still counts best as a "sideways" wave [iv]. Degree is not important at the moment. EWI uses a wave degree higher and they may be right in the end but for now its a moot point. I am using smaller degree waves as a vision of 1000 DOW eventually for an ultimate bear market low years from now will probably justify the labeling. But for now, its not important. They only thing that is important is interpreting the form and direction.

Additionally if this is a wave [iv], there is still a possibility it is developing as a triangle. There have been a succession of zigzags lately and that is a requirement of a triangle. But again, form is a moot point also - a wave [v] requires a new low unless truncated and I don't suspect truncation for a wave [v] to occur in the SPX or Wilshire 5000.  So the target is that the market works its way lower to 1100 at the least in a wave [v].

There may have been truncation occurring in the subwave (v) of [iii] (ala 2008 in 5 of (3) after the big crash) but there shouldn't be on wave [v].
Daily stills shows that the 2010 peak is significant resistance. A failure to take this level should result in selling. The daily shows an ALT:1 in a slightly differing spot.  Also note that it can be considered that today represented a "visit" to the 50 DMA. It will look that way on the chart as the 50 DMA is dropping fast.
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