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Friday, September 30, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 September [Update 8:45PM]

[Update 8:45PM: Two versions of the ending diagonal wave [v] count which is my top count at the moment because thats whats staring us in the face. Don't get hung up on the nitty gritty. The main point being they both end below 1101 SPX and some possible "overthrow" of the lower wedge line. Is it a "textbook" wedge or ED pattern? No, but the subtle patterns are the ones that usually work. Was the March 2008 low a textbook wedge? No it wasn't but it certainly captured the "spirit" of an ending diagonal and the results were the same.

For the upside option, I am still wary of an upper wedgeline challenge. We'll see how futures play out Sunday night. Friday ended decidedly bearish and a continuation of that, at least through Monday morning is often the case.
Slight variation allows perhaps a bigger pop to the upside early next week even right out the gate and that possible wedgeline challenge to the upside. 
If a massive gap down happens Monday, then a falling wedge may not be in play but rather a solid wave (iii) of [v] down. So until then we'll have to see the exact nature of Sunday's futures.

[Update 6:40PM: Followers (me) of Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International call this "Primary wave [3] down" - or P[3] for short - but I do strongly consider another primary long-term count:  that of the double three combination pattern of flat-zigzag-zigzag.

Let me make clear that in the long run it does not much matter as I agree completely with both Prechter's minimum target - Dow 1000 - and the time involved to get there (approx June 2016).  Prechter's cycle time work is amazing and if you cannot agree with his wave counts, its certainly hard to argue with his time counts.

Having prices fall back to the long-running DOW 1000 support that spanned from the 1960's to early 1980's certainly seems reasonable. How it gets there is up to debate and for EW technicians to argue over. But in the end I don't think even Prechter would care if its charted as a combination Supercycle wave or a simple expanded Supercycle flat (in which P[3] is a part of). They both lead to the same destination - severe contraction and deflation and collapse of the credit cycle that pumped this sucker up to begin with.
[Update 4:55PM: This is for those that insist "the Dow can never go to _____" (pick a number lower). Greece's stock market kind of reminds one that markets can get cut in half and then get cut in half yet again and again.

Working our way backwards:
Here is 2011:
Zooming back further:
And peeling the chart back to its peak reveals the extent so far:
Yet I still don't see anyone clamoring for Greek stocks based on low prices.

Stocks - very quietly - just lost another 2.5%. EWI would probably say "prices are working their way lower" and that would be apt.

Yesterday's squeeze at end of day proved to be just that.  Will we get more squeeze plays come next week or are the bulls exhausted in trying to maintain prices above the 1140 level?  The week closed solidly under that level. The path of least resistance is proving to be down.

We cannot say just yet what exact wave is tracing out but we do have the guiding principle that lower prices under 1101 SPX is justified and required under EW rules if the market is to form at larger 5 wave pattern down. We also have a downward wedge perhaps forming from the 1230 SPX peak. However it does not yet count complete.
TLT spunky today but we kind of anticipated that a retrace back up - at the minimum - was probably occurring.
Our proposed NDX count aligns still.
SPX monthly chart. Negative MACD bar, crossover of the signal lines and the ROC has passed under the 0 line. Decidedly bearish long term.
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