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Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 04 October 2011 [Update 8:12PM]

[Update 8:12PM: The Fibonacci ratios work beautifully at the 1074 low today.  We have [v] = an exact 1.386 Fib times the price length of wave [i] and we have wave [v] exactly .612 Fib times the length of wave [iii]. Additionally its been an exact Fibonacci 5 months of decline from the peak.
[Update 7:30PM: Most indexes have some kind of wedge. The tranports actually make a very nice falling wedge with a bullish engulfing candle from the low. And in DOW theory, the Tranports and Industrials have confirmed each other's lows and have signaled a bear market 5 wave move down.
And the biggest non-confirmation in the history of DOW Theory predicted this bearish move down.
[Update 7:23PM: GDOW weekly and daily. Its a valid 5 wave down pattern.
Possible daily count. Yes its a proposed ED also.
[Update 5:05PM: Tweaked the TLT count. Could be a bearish reversal candle today. We see how it follows through.
[Update 4:45PM: The NDX did not confirm the lower low. That could be considered a bullish non-confirmation. A proposed wave 2 flat is the top count.
I had been tracking a falling wedge ending diagonal triangle for Minute [v]. One trait of a falling wedge ED is the subsequent counter-move, once the ED is complete, is violent. The surge at the end of day was an amazing 46 SPX points within 46 minutes.   The post-wedge surge is very supportive of the idea of a falling wedge and supports the idea that Minor 1 has completed and the market is in the beginning stages of Minor wave 2.

Using the Wilshire5000 for form:
The final leg should count as an a-b-c. Here is the proposed count. I projected just such a scenario 2 nights ago
SPX Daily.  Minor 2 is the top count.
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