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Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 October 2011 [Update 5:44PM]

[Update 5:44PM: Here is something you don't see from anyone: Gold to $475 in an [A]-[B]-[C] move.  Back to the blue box virgin wave space area.
IN CONSIDERATION OF THE TOP ALTERNATE LONG TERM COUNT
Any regular reader of this blog knows how long term bearish I am. I follow Prechter's thesis of a total Stock market collapse in a super deflationary series of events.  His work on time cycles is quite amazing and I concur with his assumption that it will be approximately June 2016 for the bear market price low. I also concur that the previous long term support of DOW 1000 from the 1960's to early 1980's is a target for several reasons: 1) Its when the credit bubble started to really take off and hence should end when the bubble deflates. 2) Its the previous subwave four support and a logical conclusion to a total market collapse.

Prechter imagines this is cycle wave c of a huge supecycle expanded flat count starting in 2000. I however can imagine a double corrective count.

I have used a double zigzag on Japan for instance:
Incidentally here is how I see it currently for Japan's long term count. Ready to enter the final primary wave [c] down of a double cycle zigzag. So yes even though Japan's stocks are "cheap" they may get a lot cheaper. I do expect Japan to bottom much prior to June 2016.  But either way they are in bearish alignment with world markets.
Hence this may someday become the top US market count. It pretty much flows like a P[3] through P[5] so its not much different in that sense.
[Update 4:48PM: Apple top count.  It ain't over until the Apple rots.  Remember those who think stocks such as Apple with their Bazillions in dollars locked up overseas can never go down, just remember Apple does not really control their own corporate destiny. China and others do.  Don't see any Apple sweatshops in the good 'ol USA do ya? Of course not.
ORIGINAL POST
The primary count is that wave [a] of Minor 2 up is in progress. Trying to count the squiggles to anticipate an [a] wave peak is our near term objective. Each day adds more to the puzzle. Its only when a pattern completes 80% or more of the pattern that a stronger count emerges.  [a] wave peak is ideally anywhere from a 38% - to a tad more than 50% retrace more or less. On the SPX that range is 1187 - 1222.  Or up to previous resistance at 1230 SPX.

Revamped the squiggle count to take into account that yesterday's extremely strong up day was a third wave event.  Today's sideways action then would fit into a wave (iv) event, with wave (v) of [a] still to come in a push over 1200 SPX.

A move under 1175 SPX would invalidate this squiggle count and may indicate that [b] of Minor 2 was commencing.

This is now my primary squiggle count that anticipates a wave (v) of [a].
If today was the "top" of [a], the count would look more like this and is now the alternate count.

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