IN CONSIDERATION OF THE TOP ALTERNATE LONG TERM COUNTAny regular reader of this blog knows how long term bearish I am. I follow Prechter's thesis of a total Stock market collapse in a super deflationary series of events. His work on time cycles is quite amazing and I concur with his assumption that it will be approximately June 2016 for the bear market price low. I also concur that the previous long term support of DOW 1000 from the 1960's to early 1980's is a target for several reasons: 1) Its when the credit bubble started to really take off and hence should end when the bubble deflates. 2) Its the previous subwave four support and a logical conclusion to a total market collapse.
Prechter imagines this is cycle wave c of a huge supecycle expanded flat count starting in 2000. I however can imagine a double corrective count.
I have used a double zigzag on Japan for instance:
Incidentally here is how I see it currently for Japan's long term count. Ready to enter the final primary wave [c] down of a double cycle zigzag. So yes even though Japan's stocks are "cheap" they may get a lot cheaper. I do expect Japan to bottom much prior to June 2016. But either way they are in bearish alignment with world markets.
The primary count is that wave [a] of Minor 2 up is in progress. Trying to count the squiggles to anticipate an [a] wave peak is our near term objective. Each day adds more to the puzzle. Its only when a pattern completes 80% or more of the pattern that a stronger count emerges. [a] wave peak is ideally anywhere from a 38% - to a tad more than 50% retrace more or less. On the SPX that range is 1187 - 1222. Or up to previous resistance at 1230 SPX.
Revamped the squiggle count to take into account that yesterday's extremely strong up day was a third wave event. Today's sideways action then would fit into a wave (iv) event, with wave (v) of [a] still to come in a push over 1200 SPX.
A move under 1175 SPX would invalidate this squiggle count and may indicate that [b] of Minor 2 was commencing.
This is now my primary squiggle count that anticipates a wave (v) of [a].