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Friday, October 14, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 October 2011 [Update 5:10PM]

[Update 5:10PM: Here is the last Zweig Breadth Thrust Event in March of 2009. It occurred in only 7 days. Yet notice right after the signal fired, the market had 2 down candles immediately and still within the same price range 10 days later.

Thus our [b] wave could start as soon as Monday.
On Monday, had we just reasoned that this week would end on the high, we would have been correct. A very aggressive squeeze continues. The beatings (of bears) shall continue until morale (sentiment) improves.

Primary count still has us looking for wave [a] of Minor 2.  We can now see a better 5 wave pattern using the SPX hourly.
Squiggle count has to be adjusted again. It looks better actually.  Are we near an [a] wave peak?  All we can surmise is that wave 2 likely to take the shape of a corrective 3 wave sharp pattern (5-3-5 zigzag) and that 50-62% will be retraced, usually above 50%. And since we have had a Zweig breadth thrust event, it could be much more and much sharper than we have ever had before. This is not your grandfather's market.

But with all that said,  a gap down Monday would seem "par" for the course for this market.  After a completely bullish weekly candle, and if we are near the top of [a], we require a [b] wave retrace sooner or later.  It would be just like this schizo market to do just that.  After all, we are in the resistance range of 1220-1230 and it is the logical place to unload some longs. But again, we'll see how Sunday futures trade. No real crystal ball here at the moment. We can see at least 5 waves up on the hourly but that doesn't mean we have found the [a] wave peak.

Still in the up channel:
The weekly is absolutely a huge rebound from the low. It should soften some bears to turn into bulls over the weekend as they study the charts.
SPX daily thrown in to complete the chart set:
No doubt about a Zweig Breadth Thrust event. Today made sure of it.  One can objectively surmise that the market will see 1300+ SPX again at the least based on this alone.  When and how is the question.  If it keeps spurting up at a historic rate of climb without a proper [b] wave, I think we'll see a historic rate of drop when it runs out of steam.

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