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Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 October 2011 [Update 5:40PM]

[Update 5:40PM: Perhaps the market is about to embark on a sideways chop - ala late 2009.  Here is that chart and if one can recall, the up and down gaps were nauseating. Perhaps the market will be doing the same here and form a complex double three pattern, not necessarily a textbook triangle.  This 2009 chart is an excellent example of an apparent [a]-[b]-[c] market move.

Recall the "Dubai debt crisis" that played out at that time and the e-minis plunged overnight only to recover. My how we have upgraded a sovereign notch or two.
[Update 5:19PM: Excellent technical synopsis of the current market  I've been saying pretty much what he says in this article. 1220-1230 resistance. 1190 support followed by an 1170-range support.   A break under 1170 damages the rally a bit and the market will be pressed to search for support. For the bulls they are seeking a solid close above 1230ish.

[Update 4:55PM: GDOW is a very nice wave pattern.  Blue box virgin wave space is minimal wave 2 target.
Primary count is [b] of Minor 2 up is tracing out.  Specifically we are looking at a running barrier triangle with a lower barrier limit of 1190. If 1190 is breached to the downside, then its not a barrier triangle as I have it currently labeled.

A decent close alternate is that the 1233 SPX high of yesterday was the actual [a] wave high and the market is now just beginning its [b] wave pullback. Obviously if this is the case, we are looking at just the beginning of the [b] corrective period and we will not be sure how deep the pullback will be nor what corrective form it will take.

But for now we'll keep an eye on the 1190 SPX level for a valid triangle count.
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