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Friday, October 21, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 21 October 2011 [Update 6:41PM]

[Update 6:41PM: I caution on proclaiming Minor 2 nearly over only because the GLOBAL DOW has not yet met its target. GDOW gives excellent waves as noted by the weekly chart. The second reason is the recent "Zweig Breadth Thrust" that triggered.

Wave [b] may be tracing a complex corrective or we get a wave (ii) down of [c] even after an early possible pop on Monday to finish (i) of [c]. Regardless, we should never ignore the GDOW in any projections for wave counts. And for now it appears the GDOW has a decent bit of work left in it for the rest of its Minor 2.

The ending diagonal for wave [v] of Minor 1 down was a warning that a violent reaction the opposite way (up) was about to occur. But the tenacity of the market is pretty amazing. Nothing but "bad news" out there and yet it is up 165 SPX points from only a few weeks ago and has landed a solid close above 1230.

There has not been much of a [b] wave yet it does sport a valid corrective 3-3-5 flat count. The move up from the 1197 low yesterday is not quite a 5 wave impulse move on the SPX nor Wilshire 5000.  But its an impulse on the DJIA and that index has broken out also.

Internals were pretty solid today.  We have to assume wave [c] of Minor 2 has started. Yet even so we might get an eventual Monday pullback which would be labeled (ii) of [c].

If [b] is still tracing a complex correction and today was a false breakout, we'll know soon enough I suppose. However +267 on the DJIA sure is hard to argue against.
 I like to use the Wilshire for form. The Wilshire has not taken out its previous wave [iv] of 1 high yet.  You can see a flat count for [b].  Early next week should resolve the count hopefully.
5 wave move up on the DJIA since yesterday. I'm too lazy to label em cause I know you can spot them.  May be due for a wave (ii) of [c] pullback.
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