Custom Search

Friday, October 28, 2011

Elliott Wave Update ~ 28 October 2011

As shown yesterday, the market ran toward next resistance near 1292-1295 SPX. Its for this reason, plus a solid subwave count, wave (iii) of [c] was marked at yesterday's high.  Why? Because one would think there should be some consolidation - ala wave (iv) of [c] - prior to attempting to take out this resistance and move over 1300 SPX.

So in that light, today played out much as expected with a tight range yet no new high. Consolidation.

There was a triangle today that broke higher but we cannot assume it was all of pink (iv).  It may be part of a complex wave (iv) correction as shown on the Wilshire chart below. It could take a "stab" above 1292 toward 1300 but I still think it'll meet some selling and be part of wave (iv).

Just like when wave [a] took the market to 1220-1230 resistance, it took a week or so to chew through it and break above.  So same here. It may take a few days of work to attempt a break above 1300 SPX.  That "work" would be wave (iv) of [c].
SPX shows the alternate count wave (iv) today:
Perhaps the market tests the neckline on the SPX. Hence a wave (iv) low at around 1270-1272 SPX, yet still above the previous subwave iv of (iii) priced at 1265.02 pivot. That would be the "norm" for a higher degree wave (iv) to have a low just above a lower degree previous iv of (iii).

And of course the 200DMA could be tested at 1274 so it may just be that simple.
I like this following Wilshire 15 minute chart. Beautiful waves. This also imagines wave (iv) takes longer to consolidate before moving above next resistance. Hence there could be an expanded flat wave (iv) - taking a "stab" above resistance in a wave b of (iv).
blog comments powered by Disqus